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Outlook 2021 update

Jos Hesselink • 03/09/2021
In this Outlook Update, we briefly look back on the first half of 2021 and share our expectations for the rest of the year.

How were we doing at the start of 2021?

Now that the end of the corona crisis is in sight, the Dutch economy is preparing for a strong and widely supported recovery. Public life normalises, society regains its dynamism and that gives confidence for the future. The economic consequences will turn out to be less severe than earlier forecasts. For example, the Central Planning Bureau set the economic contraction of the Dutch economy for 2020 at 3.7% and an economic recovery of 3.8% is expected this year. Since August 2021, the economic damage has been 'made up' and we are in an economic situation that existed before the virus outbreak.

The recovery in the Netherlands this year is largely supported by exports and government spending (support packages). In 2022, private spending will take over from the government and will contribute more than half of the economic growth. However, the 'en masse' relaunch of the global economy is causing a market disruption that is currently translating into high prices for raw materials, fuels and food.

In the first half of 2021, EUR 4.0 billion was invested in Dutch real estate. This is a decrease of 38% compared to the first half of 2020. The outbreak of the coronavirus (COVID-19) has dampened investment volume. In the first half of 2019, EUR 7.7 billion was still invested. Due to the uncertainty among investors about the extent of the economic consequences and the impact on real estate, many transactions were put on hold. Nevertheless, the pandemic is not the only cause of the declining investment volume. The limited number of available investment opportunities also meant that less was invested than in previous years. It is expected that the second half of the year will bring more market dynamics. Assuming that the economic recovery also manifests itself in the real estate markets, the investment volume in 2021 is expected to amount to EUR 17-18 billion.

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