The first installment of this series focuses on the debt markets. As the real estate sector enters a new cycle, we expect transaction volume to rise. With borrowing costs becoming more favourable and debt availability improving, we are witnessing a growing confidence among borrowers and lenders that property prices have largely recalibrated to the higher rate environment, and therefore it is a good time to start deploying capital more aggressively into the CRE sector.
Key trends that affirm our view that debt is flowing into CRE once again:
- Monetary easing in Europe: The European Central Bank (ECB) started easing monetary policy in June 2024, with additional rate cuts projected to bring interest rates closer to 3% by the end of 2025. With the ECB cutting a cumulative 135 basis points (bps), we are observing increased competition to place more debt capital, leading to a widening of the CRE yield spread. Currently, the CRE yield spread in Europe stands at 110 bps above the point at which the yield spread was at its narrowest during this cycle (Q3 2022). This normalisation indicates that market conditions are stabilising after a period of significant volatility, with the spread settling at a level that reflects a more balanced risk-return profile for property investments relative to government bonds.
- UK policy shifts: The Bank of England also started easing policy in August 2024, with rate cuts projected to bring interest rates closer to 3.85%. The CRE yield spread in the UK is currently 40 bps higher than when it was at its narrowest.
- Tightening corporate bond spreads: While corporate bond yields have risen, they have moved up at slower pace than 10-yr government bond yields. In other words, corporate bond spreads have also tightened. This tightening is a reflection of the positive sentiment surrounding the corporate sector as well as the broader resilience of the euro area economy. It also reflects a “risk-on” attitude for investors, which typically leads to a recovery in CRE capital markets.
- Growing loan demand: The share of banks reporting stronger loan demand is trending higher going into 2025 (see chart). The rise in loan demand reflects growing confidence among borrowers and lenders that property prices have largely recalibrated to the higher rate environment, and therefore it is a good time to start deploying capital more aggressively into the CRE sector.
- Diverse lending landscape: Non-bank lenders have increased their presence, now accounting for 43% of outstanding loans to CRE compared to just 24% pre-pandemic. These alternative lenders have become key players in the CRE financing landscape, stepping in to offer greater flexibility and competitive lending terms, while providing more diverse funding options and supporting market liquidity. This diversification across the lending landscape has helped maintain consistent financing availability, offering borrowers diverse funding options. Debt funds backed by sovereign wealth or pension funds are entering the market with significant lending capacity, providing loans over €100 million at attractive rates. This influx of capital fosters a competitive lending environment, allowing borrowers to secure favourable terms while these funds increasingly fill gaps left by traditional banks.
- Declining short-term debt costs: Borrowing costs for shorter-term debt are now at their lowest in two years. The recent year-over-year (YOY) decline in 5-year EURIBOR swap rates highlights this trend, with EURIBOR dropping 40 bps over the past year. Such reductions are notable as they lower borrowing costs for investors, enabling them to secure financing at more favourable rates. These favourable shifts can significantly boost investor returns, leading to higher profitability on investments.
- Prime investment margins narrowing: Margins on prime investments are now just 20-30 bps wider than their peak cycle levels, signalling lenders' eagerness to provide financing and favourable conditions for borrowers. Pricing compression is particularly evident in the secondary market, where margins have contracted by up to 75 bps, reflecting lenders' increased willingness to support a broader range of investment opportunities. This shift not only boosts the appeal of secondary assets but also gives borrowers more choice and flexibility in their financing options.
- Higher loan-to-value (LTV) ratios: LTV ratios have risen significantly, with senior LTVs now reaching levels of 55% to 60%, even within traditionally more cautious sectors like offices. This marks a notable shift in lending practices as higher LTVs signal a greater risk tolerance and an increased willingness among lenders to finance larger portions of property values.
Strategic Recommendations:
- Take advantage of tight fixed-rate debt spreads: Corporate bond spreads and CRE debt spreads are currently narrow. Increased lender competition to place more debt has driven down spreads, presenting an opportunity for borrowers to secure more favourable financing terms. If you are considering locking in longer-term debt, it’s important to recognize that base rates in the low 3% range are quite attractive in the current market.
- Anchor to a 3%-3.5% 10-year government bond yield: The ultra-low interest rate policies we’ve experienced over the past few decades were an anomaly, driven largely by unique economic conditions. Moving forward, we should only expect such accommodative policies during periods of recession or economic contraction—situations that are less likely in the current macroeconomic environment. As the economy stabilises, interest rates are expected to normalize, with 10-year euro area government bond yields settling around the 3%-3.5% range.
- Focus on maintaining a long-term perspective in property investments: The short-term nature of the news cycle means that investors can sometimes react impulsively to the latest headlines. When market recovery happens, it may still be fragile in the early stages, with volatility reflecting investor uncertainty. Lean into the uncertainty with longer-term conviction on strategy to take advantage of short-term reactivity.
- Investors and lenders must reassess their strategies: The era of "easy money" for lenders and equity investors has come to an end. Rather than relying on cap rate compression, the focus will shift to operating fundamentals and core returns will become increasingly appealing to investors. This shift will likely reduce the portion of the market previously dominated by value-add players. As core investors return and competition intensifies, those seeking higher returns will need to develop strategic, real estate-related business plans that meet evolving tenant demands. The debt market also presents opportunities, particularly in green lending and development financing, that align with sustainability and innovation trends. Identifying opportunities in green lending or development financing will be key to capturing higher returns while staying aligned with market trends and tenant needs. A successful strategy must be grounded in a deep understanding of the fundamentals of occupier demand, as this is crucial to mitigating risk and ensuring long-term viability.
- Stay informed about regional variations in lending costs: The difference in lending costs for commercial property across Europe impacts investors by affecting the cost of capital, profitability, and investment decisions. Lower lending costs in Europe make financing cheaper, potentially increasing demand, returns, and investor interest. UK real estate will remain attractive for a range of buyers due to typically higher yields, but with financing more costly, some buyers may find it easier to achieve returns in continental Europe. The UK's prominent position, however, is a result of decades of being recognised for its institutional strength and transparent market dynamics, which continue to draw in investors. Investors should regularly assess the regional lending cost differences, adjust their strategies based on financing conditions, and consider diversifying their portfolios across both markets to optimise returns and manage risk.
