Experts predict that if Donald Trump returns as U.S. President, Chinese investors will accelerate their entry into Thailand, establishing business bases for exports. The influx of Chinese capital into Thailand's real estate sector poses challenges for medium and small-sized Thai developers.
According to the Board of Investment (BOI), Chinese investment applications reached THB 146.36 billion in the first nine months of 2024. Additionally, as of October 31, 2024, there were 29,913 registered businesses in Thailand with Chinese shareholders, with a total registered capital of THB 409.3 billion, an increase of 9.82% from 2023.
The number of Chinese nationals with work permits in Thailand has also surged, reaching 41,752 in October 2024, surpassing Japanese nationals for the first time in over a decade. This increase in Chinese presence translates into a significant purchasing power for Thailand’s real estate market.
Cushman & Wakefield Thailand’s research division forecasts that more Chinese investors will enter Thailand in 2025, boosting demand for condominiums and landed housing in both rental and sales markets. This trend is driven by strong bilateral relations and trade policies under Trump that impact China’s exports.
Despite challenges in China’s economy, Chinese businesses have preemptively adapted, mitigating potential impacts. Their expansion in Thailand will likely include full-scale real estate developments— developers, contractors, engineers, and workers—all equipped with advanced construction technology. This allows for faster project completion and lower costs, as most materials are imported from China.
Challenges for Thai Developers
Chinese developers often register companies in Thailand with majority Thai ownership but maintain Chinese leadership, potentially disadvantaging local firms. Their projects frequently cater to Chinese buyers, which may affect Thai developers, especially in industrial zones and the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC).
Thai real estate experts, including Sunthorn Sthaphorn, CEO of Sathaphorn Estate and President of the Housing Business Association, note that local developers face competition from Chinese players, who enter the market with lower-cost materials and faster construction timelines. While high-end projects (above THB 30 million) often involve joint ventures between Chinese and Thai firms, mid-range condominiums are increasingly being developed entirely by Chinese investors.
Concerns also arise over the complete supply chain integration by Chinese firms—bringing their own engineers, contractors, and labor—resulting in cost advantages over Thai SMEs. Thai developers must enhance their competitiveness by improving sustainability, ethical business practices, and innovation in smart home technology.
In the long term, if Chinese investment continues to expand, local developers—especially medium and small-sized firms—must adapt to remain competitive. While major Thai developers are less affected, smaller firms must build strong branding and accelerate construction processes to keep up. Thailand still holds advantages in service quality and brand trust, even among Chinese buyers.
Government Response and Future Outlook
Thai authorities and developers must implement measures to address the growing Chinese presence. Unauthorized Chinese factories are increasing, prompting the Ministry of Industry to shut down several illegal operations. Additionally, Chinese firms leveraging lower costs to compete in steel and construction materials raise concerns for Thailand’s long-term economic stability.
As Chinese investment in Thai real estate grows, government oversight and industry adaptation will be key to ensuring a balanced and competitive market.
Source: Thansettakij Newspaper, Issue 4,068 (February 6-8, 2025)
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