Vietnam's economy continued its robust recovery in 2024, with GDP growing by 7.09% compared to the previous year. The agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors grew by 3.27%, industry and construction by 8.24%, and services by 7.38%. Exports of goods and services surged by 11.35%, while imports increased by 13.49%, reflecting a strong rebound in international trade. Inflation was well-controlled, final consumption rose by 7.54%, and foreign investment reached $6.31 billion.
HANOI RESIDENTIAL MARKET
In 2024, Hanoi saw a significant increase in new apartment supply, with approximately 28,700 units launched, nearly 3.4 times higher than in 2023 and the highest level in the past five years. In Q4 2024 alone, 9,138 new apartments were introduced, up 5% quarter-on-quarter and 146% year-on-year. This growth was driven by new projects in integrated urban areas such as Vinhomes Ocean Park and Vinhomes Global Gate. The suburban area surpassed the Western area, contributing three-quarters of the main supply. The mid-end segment led the new supply, accounting for 57%, followed by the high-end segment with 43%. New apartment sales in Hanoi reached nearly 9,200 units, down 6% from the previous quarter but up 99% year-on-year. The total new sales for the year increased to 29,800 units, 1.8 times higher than the previous year. Housing demand in Hanoi remained high, driven by population growth and urban migration. Most new projects in large integrated urban areas achieved an absorption rate of around 90%. Some projects that sold out this quarter have moved to the reservation phase for subsequent phases. The average primary price was nearly USD 2,917/sqm, up 8% quarter-on-quarter and 25% year-on-year. This price increase was driven by the rise in new supply from the high-end and luxury segments, which accounted for over 40% of the new supply, while the supply of affordable apartments remained limited.
The landed property market in Q4 2024 recorded nearly 3,900 new landed properties launched, marking a new record. In Q4 2024, the city saw the launch of 1,687 new units, down 36% quarter-on-quarter but up 12.5 times year-on-year. This increase was mainly driven by the launch of a large integrated urban project in Dong Anh District, accounting for 85% of the new supply. The suburban area continued to dominate the landed property market, accounting for 98% of the new supply. In 2024, over 3,000 units were sold, up nearly 11.7 times compared to 2023. In Q4 2024, Hanoi's landed property market recorded 892 units sold, down 52% quarter-on-quarter but up about 10 times year-on-year. Additionally, other suburban districts such as Ha Dong, Hoang Mai, and Thuong Tin also showed good absorption rates. The selling price of landed properties increased to USD 11,934/sqm, down 9% quarter-on-quarter but up 101% year-on-year. The significant increase in the average primary selling price in Hanoi marks a notable recovery from the relatively low prices in 2023. Throughout this year, developers temporarily halted sales activities to await market improvement.
In 2025, approximately 18,700 new apartments and 2,100 new landed properties are expected to be launched, mainly in suburban areas such as Gia Lam and Dong Anh Districts. The central, fringe central, and western areas are likely to experience a shortage of apartment supply. The suburban districts will lead the new supply thanks to infrastructure development and urban planning. Dong Anh and Gia Lam are expected to become urban districts, significantly increasing housing supply from large projects such as Vinhomes Co Loa and BRG Smart City.
HANOI RETAIL MARKET
In Q4 2024, Hanoi's retail market saw no new supply, maintaining the total retail area at nearly 1.4 million sqm. Throughout 2024, the market welcomed an additional 14,734 sqm of retail space. This new supply came from three notable projects: The Linc, Diamond Park Plaza, and Diamond Plaza, all located in non-central areas. The overall occupancy rate in Q4 2024 reached 85.7%, up slightly by 0.1 ppts quarter-on-quarter but down 0.6 ppts year-on-year. This quarter saw the expansion of sectors such as Cosmetics, F&B, and Supermarkets, with brands including SK-II, Don Chicken, and Dong Gogi. The average gross rent for ground floor (GF) space reached USD 44.6/sqm/month, up 1.6% quarter-on-quarter and 3.7% year-on-year. Rent adjustments were recorded in properties with stable occupancy rates.
Over the next three years (2025 – 2027), about 17 retail projects will add 278,000 sqm of retail space to the market, with the western area accounting for 46% of future supply. Major retail developers are also expanding into neighboring provinces, with projects such as Vincom Megamall Ocean Park 2 in Hung Yen and Aeon Mall Ha Long in Quang Ninh, highlighting the development potential of the retail sector.
HANOI OFFICE MARKET
In Q4 2024, Hanoi's office market maintained stable supply quarter-on-quarter, with no significant changes recorded for both Grade A and Grade B offices. However, on a yearly basis, Grade A supply increased moderately by 2.55%, while Grade B supply grew higher at 2.79%. The stable growth reflects developers' confidence in Hanoi's office market, especially in strategic areas such as Hoan Kiem and Cau Giay, where demand for high-quality office space remains concentrated.
In Q4 2024, the occupancy rate of Grade A offices remained high, with a slight increase of 1.34 ppts quarter-on-quarter and a significant increase of 5.07 ppts year-on-year, driven by demand from sectors such as IT, Banking, and Logistics. This reflects tenants' shift towards high-quality office spaces in prime locations. Conversely, the occupancy rate of Grade B offices decreased by 0.46 ppts quarter-on-quarter and 0.03 ppts year-on-year, as cost-sensitive tenants prioritized affordability amid increasing supply. The market shows that mid-range offices face increasing competition and price pressure. Office rents for both Grade A and Grade B in Hanoi decreased slightly in Q4 2024.
In 2025, the city is expected to welcome 24,500 sqm of new supply. Rents are expected to increase by about 1.7% to 2.2% during 2025–2026, with vacancy rates dropping to around 23-24% as leasing demand begins to recover. From 2027, rent increases are forecast to stabilize at around 1.0% per year. During 2025–2029, Hanoi's total supply is expected to grow by 7.7% annually. Starting from 2027, vacancy rates will rise to 27-28% due to the increase in new supply. Key leasing demand will continue to come from sectors such as banking, manufacturing, information technology, insurance, and logistics. Tenants in Grade A office buildings will continue to focus on sustainability standards and flexible workspaces. Green and sustainable buildings will be an inevitable trend for new development projects.
INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE IN THE NORTHERN KEY ECONOMIC REGION
Including: Hanoi, Bac Ninh, Hai Phong, Hung Yen, Hai Duong, Vinh Phuc, Quang Ninh
A new industrial park was launched in the Northern Key Economic Region this quarter, namely the expanded Yen My II Industrial Park in Hung Yen Province, providing about 150 hectares of industrial land for lease to the market. The total supply of industrial land in the North currently exceeds 16,800 hectares, up 0.9% quarter-on-quarter and 15.2% year-on-year. Meanwhile, a new ready-built factory project, Vietnam Deep C Phase 2 Industrial Park, was launched this quarter, adding about 71,500 sqm of space, bringing the total supply of this market to over 4.3 million sqm, up 1.7% quarter-on-quarter and 16.7% year-on-year. The ready-built warehouse market also recorded three new projects in Hai Phong and Hung Yen, adding about 150,000 sqm to the market. The total supply of warehouses in the North reached over 2.9 million sqm, up 5.7% quarter-on-quarter and 33.1% year-on-year.
The Northern Key Economic Region maintained good investment momentum, with a total net absorption area of 83 hectares. Demand mainly came from Hung Yen with a rate of 29% and Hai Duong with 20%. Meanwhile, Bac Ninh and Hai Phong, the two main industrial & logistics hubs of the Northern region, each accounted for 17% of the total demand. The main drivers of industrial land demand this quarter came from sectors such as Electronics, Chemicals, and ready-built factory and warehouse developers. The average asking rent for industrial land across the market was recorded at USD 130/sqm/lease term, up 4.8% year-on-year. At the project level, some projects adjusted rents up by about 7-10% due to high demand for industrial land.
The absorption of ready-built factories and warehouses was recorded at 128,600 sqm and 54,400 sqm, respectively, with the average rent in each market reaching USD 4.9/sqm/month. Most developers maintained unchanged rental rates due to competitive market conditions.
Approximately 4,000 hectares of supply are expected to enter the market from 2025 to 2027. However, many industrial parks are showing signs of delay due to land clearance and compensation issues, which may slow down the launch progress of projects to 2025, 2026, and subsequent years. The ready-built factory market is expected to receive about 971,000 sqm of space. Notable projects include BW Industrial, CNC Tech, Indochina Kajima, and Frasers Property. In terms of location, Vinh Phuc Province leads in future supply with a contribution rate of 38%. Regarding warehouse supply, the Northern Key Economic Region will welcome approximately 800,000 sqm to the market over the next three years (2025 – 2027). Bac Ninh and Hai Phong will lead with rates of 52% and 22%, respectively.
Download the full version of Marketbeat Q4 2024 here.
