Vietnam's economy continued its robust recovery in 2024, with GDP growing by 7.09% compared to the previous year. The agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sectors grew by 3.27%, industry and construction by 8.24%, and services by 7.38%. Exports of goods and services surged by 11.35%, while imports increased by 13.49%, reflecting a strong rebound in international trade. Inflation was well-controlled, final consumption rose by 7.54%, and foreign investment reached $6.31 billion.
HO CHI MINH CITY RESIDENTIAL MARKET
In Q4 2024, approximately 2,719 new apartments were launched, marking a 324% increase from the previous quarter and a 56% year-on-year rise. The East area led in new supply, contributing 80%. The High-end and Luxury segments dominated the market, with notable projects such as Opus One, Eaton Park, and Masteri Grand View. The affordable segment made a comeback with the launch of Conic Boulevard in Binh Chanh. The market recorded new absorption of 2,630 units, up 80% quarter-on-quarter and 51% year-on-year, indicating a recovery in the Ho Chi Minh City housing market. The Luxury segment led with 49% of total units sold, followed by the Mid-end and High-end segments with 23% and 22%, respectively. The average primary price in Q4 2024 reached a new record of $3,672/sqm, up 22% from the previous quarter and 16% from the same period last year.
The landed property market in Q4 2024 saw only 27 new units launched from the next sales phases of two projects in Binh Chanh District and Thu Duc City, down 90% from the previous quarter. However, for the whole year 2024, 420 units were launched, up 24% year-on-year. The market recorded 80 successful transactions, down 76% from the previous quarter but up 27% year-on-year. Transactions were mainly in Thu Duc City and the two districts of Binh Chanh and Binh Tan, accounting for 46% and 45% of total transactions, respectively. The average primary price reached $10,701/sqm, down 10% quarter-on-quarter and 28% year-on-year.
As of the end of 2024, the Ho Chi Minh City government announced that 34 out of 64 real estate projects in the city had resolved difficulties. This could help open up new supply in the future, with more than 10,000 apartments and 900 landed houses expected to enter the market in 2025, marking the beginning of a new cycle.
HO CHI MINH CITY RETAIL MARKET
Q4 2024 welcomed 15.356 sqm of retail space from Central Premium Mall in District 8, bringing the total market supply to 1.18 million sqm, up 1.3% quarter-on-quarter and 10.0% year-on-year. 2024 was a vibrant year for the Ho Chi Minh City retail market, with supply coming from three projects: Vincom Mega Mall Grand Park (Thu Duc City), Parc Mall, and Central Premium Mall (District 8), as well as the renovation and relaunch of Vincom Ba Thang Hai, adding about 103,000 sqm of retail space to the market. The occupancy rate also increased by 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter and 2.5 percentage points year-on-year. The average rent reached $52.7/sqm/month, up slightly by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter but down 0.7% year-on-year, due to the impact of new supply from non-central areas.
In 2025, the market is expected to welcome 19,000 sqm of new retail space from two projects: Marina Central Tower (District 1) and Park Hills Palace (Go Vap District). Retail developers have announced ambitious expansion plans to capitalize on the advantages of urbanization, a young population, and a growing middle class. Notable projects in the southern region include Aeon Mall Bien Hoa in Dong Nai Province and Aeon Tan An in Long An Province. The 2025-2027 period is expected to see six new projects providing 116,000 sqm of retail space.
HO CHI MINH CITY OFFICE MARKET
In Q4 2024, the market did not record any new office supply. However, for the whole year 2024, Ho Chi Minh City had 117,500 sqm of new supply from five Grade A buildings, three of which are in the central area. The total supply of Grade A and B offices in Ho Chi Minh City reached 1,634,726 sqm. Demand for office space mainly came from the information technology, banking, manufacturing, healthcare, and e-commerce sectors. Businesses preferred the central business district (CBD), the northern and eastern areas of Ho Chi Minh City. The occupancy rate exceeded 87%, with average rents for Grade A and B offices at $54.55/sqm/month and $34.24/sqm/month, respectively, stable compared to the previous quarter and the same period last year.
In 2025, the Ho Chi Minh City office market is expected to welcome 165,000 sqm of new supply from two projects in both central and non-central areas. From 2024 to 2029, average rents in Ho Chi Minh City are forecast to remain stable, with changes below 1% per year, except for 2025, which is expected to see a sharp increase of 5%, but the upward trend will stabilize with about 0.4%-0.5% from 2026 when new supply outside the central area is completed. From 2026 onwards, the market is expected to add 85,000 sqm of new supply each year. Thu Thiem and Phu My Hung continue to be oriented as new office centers. Due to abundant new supply, the vacancy rate is expected to remain high, possibly exceeding 24%.
INDUSTRIAL REAL ESTATE IN THE SOUTHERN KEY ECONOMIC REGION
Including: Ho Chi Minh City, Binh Duong, Dong Nai, Long An, and Ba Ria - Vung Tau
The industrial land market did not have any new supply in Q4 2024, with the total existing supply reaching 28,500 ha, stable quarter-on-quarter and up 1.6% year-on-year. The supply of ready-built factories and warehouses saw six new projects, bringing the total supply to 6,424,000 sqm and 6,300,700 sqm, respectively. While the average rent for warehouses remained stable at $4.5/sqm/month, the rent for industrial land increased by 4.6% year-on-year, reaching $176/sqm/lease term; the rent for ready-built factories also adjusted up by 2.3% year-on-year to $4.8/sqm/month.
Demand for industrial land and ready-built factories continued to grow. Q4 2024 recorded 64 ha of industrial land transactions, down 40.5% quarter-on-quarter and 23.5% year-on-year. Long An and Ba Ria - Vung Tau contributed significantly to this absorption, accounting for about 48% and 35% of the total, respectively. The total net absorption of ready-built factories in this quarter was over 226,000 sqm, down 7.9% quarter-on-quarter but nearly three times the figure of last year. Binh Duong led in net absorption, accounting for 76% of the total, followed by Dong Nai with 15%. Demand for industrial land mainly came from sectors such as Machinery & Equipment, Textiles, Plastics, and Basic Metals. For ready-built warehouses, the total net absorption reached nearly 45,400 sqm, down 7.8% quarter-on-quarter but nearly three times the figure of the same period last year. Dong Nai led in warehouse demand with 57% of the total net absorption, followed by Ba Ria - Vung Tau with 22%. Binh Duong and Dong Nai each contributed about 10-11% of the total demand in this quarter.
In Q4 2024, the government approved investment policies for over 1,000 ha of industrial land in the southern region, including the expansion of My Xuan B1 - Conac Industrial Park in Ba Ria - Vung Tau and phase 1 of Bau Can - Tan Hiep in Dong Nai. Overall, industrial parks in the southern region will benefit greatly from new infrastructure projects such as Long Thanh Airport, Bien Hoa - Vung Tau Expressway, and Ho Chi Minh City Ring Road 3, which are being accelerated for completion by 2026. The interest and potential in this industrial land are likely to boost both demand and prices in the future.
Download the full version of Marketbeat Q4 2024 here.
