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EMEA Outlook 2024: The Tide is Turning

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The 2024 European Outlook by Cushman & Wakefield is tailored for investors and property owners, our insights offer a clear path through the complexities of today’s market.

KEY POINTS:

  • The commercial real estate market is facing a pivotal point with property values nearing a potential bottom due to higher borrowing costs.

  • As inflation in the short term adheres to the projected path, this, in turn, instils confidence that monetary policy is appropriately restrictive, hence, we anticipate Central Banks to maintain their current stance, at least until H2 2024.

  • Central Banks will maintain a vigilant oversight of underlying inflationary forces, particularly in the services sector, where wages continue to exhibit an upward trend.

  • The euro area and the UK are expected to narrowly avoid a recession with modest growth rates; however, the risk of recession remains.

  • Investment is anticipated to remain restrained in the latter part of 2023 due to a challenging economic environment.

  • Government bond yields are expected to peak in 2024, reflecting the consensus that interest rates will stay elevated for a while.

  • There is a lag in real estate valuations catching up with market yields, leading to a slower price discovery process, especially in the office sector.

  • Yields across all sectors are expected to expand further throughout the year, with office yields witnessing the largest outward movement.

  • In light of the prevailing interest rate climate and the recent reassessment of risk, certain markets are currently offering appealing entry points for investors.

  • Despite the economic slowdown, leasing activity remains relatively strong, with positive rental growth anticipated across sectors.

To further discuss your business opportunities and challenges, don't hesitate to reach out to your local contacts via your country page below:


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authors

Sukhdeep-Dhillon-Head of EMEA Forecasting
Sukhdeep Dhillon

Head of EMEA Forecasting
London, United Kingdom


+44 (7920) 574823

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Guilherme Neves
Guilherme Neves

Senior Research Analyst
London, United Kingdom


+44 (20) 32963892

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Rebecca Rockey New York Research
Rebecca Rockey

Deputy Chief Economist, Global Head of Forecasting
Washington, United States


+1 202 407 8132

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Dominic-Brown_Headshot_AP
Dominic Brown

Head of International Research, Global Think Tank
Brisbane, Australia


+61 (431) 947161

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