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Insights

Outlook 2024 France, what can we expect in Commercial Real Estate in 2024?

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2024 begins with a glimmer of hope for the French economy, after four years of major disruption linked to global health, political and economic crises. Against this complex backdrop, France is seeking to maintain its indicators despite persistent challenges, notably tensions over energy prices. The European Commission, however, has revised its estimates downwards, taking into account persistent inflation and high key interest rates. Let's take a look at the main aspects and convictions for the year ahead.

Growth and Economic Outlook

Following a contraction in 2023, forecasts from INSEE and the Banque de France suggest that economic activity in France will stabilise at a moderate pace in 2024. Despite a downward revision by the European Commission due to persistent inflation, the French government is optimistic, anticipating a modest recovery of +1.3% in 2025, driven mainly by household consumption.

Inflation and Purchasing Power: Contrasting Trends

Initiated in the summer of 2023, the fall in inflation should continue in 2024 and 2025, maintained at around 2%. Initially affecting the services and energy sectors, the slowdown in prices is gradually spreading to manufactured goods and food. At the same time, food prices, which are closely linked to raw materials, are expected to stabilise in 2024 and fall significantly in 2025. Although household consumption will be 150 basis points lower than in 2022, it should reach around +0.6% in 2023. The slightly upward trajectory of purchasing power (between +0.7% and +1%) is supported by the rise in real wages and the fall in inflation. However, low-wage earners below the index-linked minimum wage face challenges in offsetting inflation through savings. These contrasting dynamics are shaping the economic landscape in 2024, underlining the need for a strong economic recovery.

Discover the Outlook 2024 in Commercial Real Estate

In this pivotal year, dive deep into the "Outlook France 2024" reports of the Office, Retail and Logistics Real estate markets for an informed view of the trends ahead. Navigate through the outlooks to grasp emerging opportunities and understand the key dynamics that will shape these sectors in 2024-2025. Economic challenges become opportunities, and these detailed insights offer the keys to informed decision-making. Don't miss the chance to stay ahead of the trends and shape your strategic vision in these dynamic markets.

SECTOR-SPECIFIC REPORTS

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Investment

The economy has seen stagnant growth and diminishing inflation, with Central Banks intensifying rate hikes. Inflation is on the expected path, encouraging Central Banks to continue their policies until at least H2 2024. Property values are projected to inflect in Q3 2024, coinciding with economic recovery and interest rate cuts
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Office

In 2024-2025, the Greater Paris region office market is forecast to land at 1.9 million sqm, marking a pause after the 2.2 million of 2022. The post-crisis rebound should resume with GDP growth. Paris is concentrating demand, but high rents are limiting access to the Central Business District. Businesses will turn to better-served tertiary centres on the outskirts, with an expected increase in take-up.
Retail
Retail

The retail sector has overcome recent challenges with surprising resilience, resisting confinements, closures, insolvencies, ZANs, inflation and falling purchasing power. Now omnichannel, retail has demonstrated its importance to the French economy by aggressively adapting to consumer needs. Despite price adjustments and a slowdown in transactions, the attractiveness of retail to investors remains strong, underlining its robustness on the property market in 2024.
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Logistics & Industrial

In the logistics market, the rise in rental values is slowing in the face of inflation and a scarcity of supply. Ancillary property costs, supply chain automation and rising interest rates are holding back growth. Logistics commitments have fallen significantly (-67%), and now account for 14% of CRE investment in France. Despite the decline in the competitiveness of property yields, the stabilisation of interest rates could lead to a rapid recovery.

Contacts

Barbara Koreniouguine, Head of Country France
Barbara Koreniouguine

Country Head
Neuilly-sur-Seine, France


+33 6 74 82 78 64

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Head of Retail Services • Leasing Agency - Retail
Christian Dubois

Head of Retail Services
Neuilly-sur-Seine, France


+33 1 53 76 92 96

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Directeur Général Adjoint • CM Investment Sales
Nils Vinck

Directeur Général Adjoint
Neuilly-sur-Seine, France


+33 1 86 46 10 19

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Romain Nicolle - Head Agence Lyon - Head Logistique CMG
Romain Nicolle

Directeur Cushman & Wakefield Lyon, Head of Logistic CMG
Lyon, France


+33 (4) 72740891

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Vanessa Zouzowsky
Vanessa Zouzowsky

International Partner, Head of Retail CMG
Neuilly-sur-Seine, France


+33 1 86 46 11 05

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Olivier Taupin - Directeur Agence Bureaux et Industriel France
Olivier Taupin

International Partner, Head Office leasing
Neuilly-sur-Seine, France


+33 1 53 76 80 20

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Arthur Saunier
Arthur Saunier

Directeur du Département Grands Projets
Neuilly-sur-Seine, France


+33 1 86 46 10 30

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Nicolas Carré, Directeur Ventes vides Bureaux IDF
Nicolas Carré

Head of Empty Sales
Neuilly-sur-Seine, France


+33 1 53 76 80 23

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Alexis Bouteiller France
Alexis Bouteiller

Directeur Logistique
Neuilly-sur-Seine, France


+33 1 86 46 10 32

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