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Trump 2.0—The First 100 Days

Implications for the Economy & Property

Trump 2.0—The First 100 Days explores the early economic and commercial real estate implications of President Trump’s 2025 policy agenda. Building on our analyses of the First 100 Days from the last two administrations, this series of reports examines critical developments in trade policy, tax reforms, immigration and other policy priorities. To provide tailored insights, we’ve created focused analyses for the U.S. and Canada, as well as the APAC and EMEA regions, highlighting the economic and property sector outlook in each area. Each report dives into relevant regional trends across sectors, offering invaluable insights for occupiers and investors navigating today’s landscape.

Our analysis presents the most probable and possible scenarios based on current data, but conditions remain dynamic, with new developments still emerging. Both potential opportunities and challenges may arise as these policies take shape over time.

 

U.S. Key Takeaways

  • The U.S. economy has remained resilient thus far, but the policy uncertainty is beginning to weigh on some of the leading indicators pointing to slower growth ahead.

  • Recession odds are rising and short-term stagflation—meaning slowing economic growth and sticky inflation—is emerging as the new consensus for 2025. A stronger growth scenario is forming for 2026.

  • The property sector has largely remained resilient through the first 100 days. The leasing fundamentals held steady and the capital markets recovery continued in Q1 2025.

  • While credit and risk spreads may widen in the short-term, the gradual recovery in debt and capital markets is expected to continue and gain more pace in 2026.

U.S. Report

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APAC Key Takeaways

  • The APAC economy entered 2025 in good shape, but policy uncertainty could slow growth. Domestic consumption should help support regional growth, but Asia Pacific will still feel the effects of the global slowdown.

  • The APAC property sector performed well coming into 2025, characterised by generally healthy occupier demand and improving investment transaction activity.

  • The manufacturing sector exporting to the U.S. will be hardest hit by the tariffs, though all sectors will feel the effects of a slower economy. Leasing and investment activity will likely slow in the short term due to delayed decisions. However, the region has proven it can recover quickly when conditions improve and confidence is restored. 

  • Given the riskier environment, credit spreads will widen in the near term, but property values are expected to remain resilient and rise after the uncertainty.

APAC Report

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EMEA Key Takeaways

  • We expect U.S. tariffs and uncertainty to slow euro area growth, but the economy will weather the impact and continue to expand. The UK economy will remain resilient but may face higher inflation due to its more open economy and trade reliance.

  • The EMEA property sector entered 2025 with a stable backdrop, supported by steady occupier demand and early signs of improvement in investment activity.

  • Trade barriers will encourage companies to shift manufacturing closer to home, driving long-term demand for domestic industrial real estate through onshoring and nearshoring strategies.

  • In the short term, credit and risk spreads across Europe may experience some widening due to economic uncertainty and market volatility. However, underlying fundamentals remain supportive of a gradual recovery.

EMEA Report

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Access Canada Report
In the first 100 days of President Trump's administration, there has been a notable shift in economic policy. While the Canadian economy has shown resilience, the uncertainty surrounding these policies is starting to impact key indicators, suggesting slower growth ahead.
Access the Canada Report

Contacts

Rebecca Rockey New York Research
Rebecca Rockey

Deputy Chief Economist, Global Head of Forecasting
Washington, United States

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James_Bohnaker
James Bohnaker

Senior Economist
Boston, United States

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Dominic Brown

Head of International Research, Global Think Tank
Brisbane, Australia

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Sukhdeep-Dhillon-Head of EMEA Forecasting
Sukhdeep Dhillon

Head of EMEA Forecasting
London, United Kingdom

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Kevin Thorpe Washington DC Chief Economist
Kevin Thorpe

Chief Economist
Washington, United States

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