According to figures from international real estate consultancy firm Cushman & Wakefield (C&W), Munich’s commercial real estate transaction volume reached EUR 1.24 billion in Q1 2024, a higher result than for the whole of 2023 (EUR 1.18 billion). This is the first time since Q3 2022 that the transaction volume has exceeded the one-billion-euro threshold.
Jan Isaakson, Head of Capital Markets München at C&W: “The 1st quarter of 2024 has impressively shown that buyers’ courage has returned and that confidence is spreading in the market that 2024 is the year of the turnaround. This is reflected in the fact that, for the first time since mid-2022, the prime yield has remained stable for two consecutive quarters. In combination with the current interest rate cut expectations in the Eurozone, a slightly optimistic picture can be drawn for the coming quarters.”
Jan Isaakson, Head of Capital Markets München at C&W: “The 1st quarter of 2024 has impressively shown that buyers’ courage has returned and that confidence is spreading in the market that 2024 is the year of the turnaround. This is reflected in the fact that, for the first time since mid-2022, the prime yield has remained stable for two consecutive quarters. In combination with the current interest rate cut expectations in the Eurozone, a slightly optimistic picture can be drawn for the coming quarters.”
Transaction volume: growth from two major transactions; almost no international capital involved
- At EUR 1.24 billion, the transaction volume was 727 percent higher than in the previous quarter (EUR 150 million) and about 146 percent higher than in the equivalent quarter last year (EUR 505 million). The 10-year average was exceeded by 19 percent.
- Almost 80 percent of the total volume is attributable to two transactions in the “Other” use category: the sale of the Fünf Höfe by Union Investment to the Athos family office for around EUR 700 million and the sale of the Moshammer House by Düsseldorf-based project developer Centrum to Commerz Real for around EUR 250 million. Even without these transactions, the transaction volume would still be over 190 percent higher than in the previous quarter.
- The contribution of international capital to the total transaction volume is only around 2 percent, which is around 50 basis points below the level of Q1 2023. This represents the lowest level of international capital in the Munich commercial real estate market of the past ten years.
Yields: Stable prime yields across all asset classes
- As in the previous quarter, the prime yield for core office properties was 4.60 percent. Compared to the prior-year quarter, there was an increase of 110 basis points.
- For city-centre commercial buildings, the prime yield also remained constant at 4.10 percent (+70 basis points compared to Q1/2023).
- For logistics properties, the prime yield is currently 4.50 percent and also remains unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Compared to Q1 2023, this represents an increase of 35 basis points.
Property use types: “Other” strongest category due to the sale of the Fünf Höfe, with office properties on the upswing
- The “Other” category made the largest contribution to CRE transaction volume (EUR 950 million; 77 percent) via only two transactions. The sale of Union Investment's mixed-use property “Fünf Höfe” to Athos for around EUR 700 million is largely responsible for this high result.
- In contrast to the previous quarter, in which no transaction were recorded in the office sector, office properties with a volume of EUR 285 million were traded in Q1 2024, an increase of 54 percent compared to the equivalent period last year. However, this figure is still 32 percent below the 5-year average for office transactions.
- One of the largest transactions in the office segment was the sale of the Romy office and high-street commercial building at Rosenstrasse 8 by Signa Prime Selection to Concept Real for around EUR 85 million.
- The quarterly result for logistics was weak at EUR 5 million, which was 92 percent below the 10-year average. Only one portfolio changed hands in the course of a sale-and-lease-back deal between Italian paper manufacturer Fedrigoni and U.S. company W.P. Carey.
- No transactions took place in this quarter in either of the retail or hotel sectors.
