CONTACT US
Share: Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on LinkedIn I recommend visiting cushmanwakefield.com to read:%0A%0A {0} %0A%0A {1}
US-Macro-outlook-2024-hero-mobile.jpg US-Macro-outlook-2024-hero.jpg

Insights

U.S. Macro Outlook

Get an overview of the current state of the office, industrial, retail, multifamily, capital markets and alternatives sectors along with a close look at the U.S. economy.

Access the Update

An Uncomfortable Soft Landing 

As we approach mid-2024, the U.S. economy remains resilient despite geopolitical uncertainty and interest rate fluctuations. Within the commercial real estate space, most asset types are benefitting from healthy demand drivers, but the overall industry outlook is nuanced due to headwinds including higher interest rates and office vacancies. While growth is expected to slow in the near term, the U.S. economy will likely avoid a recession and support commercial real estate activity. As inflation eases and policy rate reductions become clearer, we expect momentum to strengthen in 2025. Our updated U.S. Macro Outlook provides detailed insights into these sectors. 

KEY TAKEAWAYS

ECONOMY

Slowing growth and a break in shelter inflation’s stickiness will pave the way for the Fed to pivot in the fall.

CAPITAL MARKETS

Acceptance of higher-for-longer is permeating the market, leading to more price discovery and more optimism around activity, moving forward.

INDUSTRIAL

Even with rent growth decelerating, strong fundamentals and ongoing adjustments to higher rent levels among existing leases will keep this sector favored in an income-focused era.

MULTIFAMILY

The supply wave gets the attention, but the strength of demand should be equally acknowledged, given that it is offsetting the impacts of development on vacancy, which is now nearing its peak.

OFFICE

Still challenged by the adjustment to hybrid work, the office sector at large remains soft. But not all markets or product are created equal; the market is trifurcated and becoming more so.

RETAIL

The lack of supply is the story here for a sector that has a 40-year low vacancy rate, hovering at 5.4%. Store openings will exceed store closings this year helping keep the market anchored at tight levels.

LODGING

While pent-up demand for travel continues to buttress spending on lodging, cost effective and luxury options are likely to remain more insulated given inflation’s impact on middle- and lower-income households.

ALTERNATIVES

Secular demand drivers continue to favor most alternatives, especially those with residential underpinnings and data centers.

AUTHORS

Rebecca Rockey New York Research
Rebecca Rockey

Deputy Chief Economist, Global Head of Forecasting
Washington, United States


+1 202 407 8132

Download VCard

James_Bohnaker
James Bohnaker

Senior Economist
Boston, United States


Download VCard

Access the Full 2024 U.S. Macro Outlook
A Rolling Recession is Here
Amid a rapidly changing economic landscape, the 2024 U.S. Macro Report External Link provides a comprehensive analysis of the current state of the U.S. economy, delivering a bird's eye view of the potential challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.
Access Full Outlook

Related Insights

Above the clouds (image)
Podcast • Economy

C&W: Behind the Numbers

Our experts cut through the noise to provide you concise commentary on only the most important economic and sector-specific commercial real estate data points.
6/11/2024
European Outlook Mid-year
Research • Economy

European Macro Outlook

Gain strategic insights for success with our forward-looking analysis on the European real estate market’s evolving dynamics.
Sukhdeep Dhillon • 6/6/2024
042024-Chief-Economist-web-card
Research • Economy

Chief Economist's Perspective: U.S. Macro Outlook

Kevin Thorpe discusses how the next few months of economic data will be critical in determining the economic and CRE outlook for the remainder of the year.
Kevin Thorpe • 4/30/2024

Ready to talk?

We look forward to connecting with you.

With your permission we and our partners would like to use cookies in order to access and record information and process personal data, such as unique identifiers and standard information sent by a device to ensure our website performs as expected, to develop and improve our products, and for advertising and insight purposes.

Alternatively click on More Options and select your preferences before providing or refusing consent. Some processing of your personal data may not require your consent, but you have a right to object to such processing.

You can change your preferences at any time by returning to this site or clicking on  Cookies

More Options
Agree and Close
These cookies ensure that our website performs as expected,for example website traffic load is balanced across our servers to prevent our website from crashing during particularly high usage.
These cookies allow our website to remember choices you make (such as your user name, language or the region you are in) and provide enhanced features. These cookies do not gather any information about you that could be used for advertising or remember where you have been on the internet.
These cookies allow us to work with our marketing partners to understand which ads or links you have clicked on before arriving on our website or to help us make our advertising more relevant to you.
Agree All
Reject All
SAVE SETTINGS