The Trends & Outlook 2023/2024 Report on the Italian Real Estate market is tailored for real estate players, our insights offer a clear picture of 2023 and some hints for 2024.
KEY POINTS:
- Recession was avoided in 2023 but the future economic outlook for Italy is still uneven, deeply linked to the global scenario which remains uncertain. Despite the economic slowdown, leasing activity remained robust, with positive rental growth across sectors.
- As inflation in the short term adheres to the projected path, we are expecting ECB to maintain its current stance, at least until H2 2024, with no further increase in interest rates. Overall, we anticipate a gradual easing of monetary policy by the European Central Bank, expected in the second part of 2024, offering some relief for both for investors and occupiers.
- The new “interest rate certainty” is leading investors to price debt and equity with higher confidence to get deals moving. The greater consensus that the worst is behind us, has led to the belief that 2024 has begun with a better mood than 2023, a cautious optimism, always with an eye on the many macro headwinds.
- Yields across all sectors are expected to expand only slightly throughout the year and with the usual difference among sectors. Repricing occurred over 2023 has been meaningful and there’s more awareness among investors that the market environment will be different from the past, yields will be higher than in the zero-rate environment.
- The S of ESG will take the stage in 2024. The #11 SDG’s is about building Sustainable and Inclusive Cities: real estate capital could support and contribute to achieve this goal.
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