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Trade Shifts: U.S. Occupier Demand & Central London Offices

23/04/2025

London has long been a magnet for U.S. companies, with its vibrant business environment and strategic location making it an ideal hub for international operations. Over the last decade, U.S. firms have consistently played a significant role in shaping the Central London office market, accounting for a substantial portion of leasing activity. The recent announcement of new ‘reciprocal’ U.S. tariffs on what President Trump called ‘Liberation Day’ is likely to change the landscape of global trade and thus create both challenges and opportunities for London. 

A Special Relationship

The UK has been subjected to the lower end of the new ‘reciprocal’ tariffs at 10%, rising to 11.6% when product specific tariffs (which usurp those of national level) are applied - considerably lower than some other nations, including others within the European Union. The tariffs are also only applied to goods imports rather than services, the latter of which made up a 68% majority of UK exports to the U.S. in the year to Q3 2024.

While immune from the direct goods import tariffs, there will likely be a degree of impact from the wider economic fallout from the measures which are widely anticipated to slow growth, in turn dragging on the success of the services sector. The counter to this would be that increased bureaucracy in trade raises the need for strong accountancy, legal and strategy advice – potentially providing a fillip to these areas of the economy.

Even taking into account office space related to manufacturing, the services sector is also much more relevant to the Central London office market, accounting for 71% of leasing activity in 2024. Additionally, looking at U.S. firms’ demand in the market, the services sector has an even greater majority, accounting for 85% of this sects office leases in Central London from 2021 to 2024.

There is an additional potential upside to for the Central London office market. Being placed between the European Union and the U.S. – both geographically and politically – means that the UK may be better insulated from the volatility of the relationship between the two. This could raise the attractiveness of London for businesses looking to manage transatlantic interests without picking one side over the other.  

U.S. Companies and Central London

Over the last decade, companies headquartered in the U.S. have made up 32% of Central London office leasing over 10,000 sq ft. This is second only to the UK, which accounted for 50%, with the rest of the world accounting for the remaining 17%. In context, this translates to an average of 2.9 million sq ft per annum, with the most active year being 2018 – when leasing volumes totalled 3.9 million ft. The largest occupiers to take space during this period include Apple at Battersea Power Station and Meta (then Facebook) at 11 Canal Reach.

As well as established occupiers, newer and rapidly expanding U.S. firms also show an enduring interest in Central London. In 2024 alone, data from Cushman & Wakefield’s upcoming London Moves report found U.S. companies made up 44% of the new entrants into the capital by count.

Chart 1 CEntral London Office.png

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

Presidential Differences

While U.S. firms’ share of leasing activity in Central London has remained relatively robust historically, there are some notable variations. From 2021 to 2024, when Joe Biden held the U.S. presidency, U.S. firms accounted for 35% of take-up per annum on average. In the four years previous, from 2017 to 2020, during Donald Trump's first term presidential term, they accounted for 31% of take-up per annum on average. In terms of space take, both presidencies accounted for an average of 2.9 million sq ft.
 
It is worth noting that the largest share during the Trump era was delivered by serviced office providers - predominantly WeWork - which accounted for 28% of the overall volume of U.S.-based demand from 2017 to 2020. Removing this sect of the market highlights a difference. Even when accounting for the pandemic-marred 2020, excluding serviced office take-up, U.S.-based demand increased from 2.3 million sq ft per annum averaged from 2017 to 2019 up to 2.8 million sq ft from 2021 to 2024 - a rise of 21%. 
 
On April 9th, after stock market volatility and a bond sell-off following ‘Liberation Day’ on 2nd April, the U.S. government announced a 90 day pause on ‘reciprocal’ tariffs, with the exception of China. While we wait to see whether the ‘pause’ in tariffs is just that – a pause – or if it’s more, the expectation is that we are living in a different environment for U.S. businesses. While the last Trump presidency saw an increased tariff rate – the effective tariff rate increased to between 1.5% and 3.0% during his first term – this is now very different. 
 

Chart 2 Central London Data.png

Source: Cushman & Wakefield

Looking Ahead

As we look ahead, the evolving landscape of U.S. trade policies presents both challenges and opportunities for London's office market. The city's resilience and adaptability, coupled with its strategic position as a global business hub, provide a strong foundation to navigate these changes. While the new tariffs may initially seem daunting, they also open doors for London to attract more diverse international investments. By leveraging its robust financial sector, innovative business environment, and diverse talent pool, London is well-positioned to turn potential challenges into opportunities for growth and continued leadership in the global economy. As U.S. companies continue to play a significant role in shaping the Central London office market, the city's future remains full of potential.
 
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