An important caveat: This data reflects population changes for the second half of the prior year through the first half of the given year. For example, 2023 growth figures include changes from the second half of 2023 and the first half of 2024. This release also incorporates improved estimates for international migration, resulting in revisions to data in prior years.
Key Storylines:
International Migration Is Driving Nearly All U.S. Population Growth
Nationally, U.S. population growth was the largest in more than 20 years, growing at 1% last year. Most of this growth came from international migration, particularly in the 62 metros with more than 1 million people. Cumulatively, these metros added about 2.2 million people, with 2.1 million—96% of the total—coming from international migration. Meanwhile, roughly 400,000 people moved from large metros to smaller ones, and natural change, which measures net births, accounted for about 500,000 new residents.
The first Trump Administration offers a reference point for future international migration trends. From 2017-2019 (excluding pandemic-related volatility), international migration averaged about a quarter of last year’s level, suggesting a potential sharp slowdown in population growth over the next few years.
Gateway Cities Are Growing Again
In sharp contrast to the pandemic era, the nation’s largest cities are growing again—in some cases outperforming the U.S. average. This is a direct result of the outsized international migration, as these cities have international cachet and well-established immigrant communities that ease the transition for newcomers. This trend is also evident in what we’re seeing in CBD apartments, where fundamentals now outperform their suburban counterparts.
The data also revealed far less outbound pressure from gateway cities, leading to smaller net domestic migration inflows to more affordable Sunbelt states like Texas, Florida, and the Carolinas. While these markets still led in domestic migration, their nominal totals were lower than in previous years. The lack of outflows from gateway markets helped shore up population gains across all seven markets for the first time in over half a decade.
Sunbelt Still Leads the Way
Despite growth in the nation’s largest cities, the Sunbelt continues to see the most population growth in the U.S. Last year, the South region grew by 1.8%, outpacing the Northeast (1%), West (0.9%) and Midwest (0.8%). On a nominal basis, the region added roughly a million people last year, consistent with population growth levels since 2022, the first year reflecting the scope of migration post-pandemic. The Northeast and West regions each gained around 450,000 people, while the Midwest grew by about 240,000 in 2024.
Among the 15 fastest-growing large MSAs, 11 were in the South, with Phoenix and Las Vegas—often considered part of the Sunbelt—also making the list. Three states dominated the top 10, with major metros in Florida, Texas, and North Carolina claiming the top eight spots. Orlando led with 2.7% year-over-year (YOY) growth, followed by Houston (2.6%), Raleigh (2.6%), Austin (2.3%) and Miami (2.3%). Dallas/Ft. Worth, Charlotte, and Jacksonville all posted 2.2% YOY growth.
The other two metros in the top 15, Seattle and Northern New Jersey, saw significant upticks in growth over the past year. Both grew by about 1.1% growth in 2023 but jumped to 1.8% (Seattle) and 1.6% (Northern New Jersey) in 2024, reflecting the rise in international migration.
Urban Counties Continue to Rebound from the Pandemic
As we outlined in both Reimagining Cities and the Urban Comeback, the nation’s urban areas continue to see a resurgence from pandemic lockdowns. Breaking down the population growth by county, we can classify each based on Brookings Institution density metrics to examine key trends.
Over the past year, population growth has increased in every segment, except exurbs, though population growth remains the fastest among density segments. The most striking shift, however, is in urban core counties, where population growth has accelerated significantly. These counties have fully recovered from 2020 pandemic losses and are now growing at a rate roughly in line with the national average.
What does this mean for CRE?
Population growth drives demand across all asset classes, particularly retail and multifamily. Understanding this dynamic is key for investors looking to stay ahead. Changing growth patterns suggest a need to reconsider market selection and challenge outdated perceptions. For example, Gateway and urban core markets, which fell out of favor post-pandemic, are now rebounding. The new data also highlights some smaller metros that are showing outsized growth, which is easy to do with a smaller population base. But markets like Myrtle Beach, Lakeland and Provo are growing quickly and may soon join the ranks of the country’s larger MSAs.
Explore the latest population growth figures for Large Metros (1+ million population)
Explore the latest population growth figures for Small Metros (less than 1 million population)
