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Insights

Where Do U.S. Property Values Go From Here?

In this two-part series, we take an in-depth look at how the shifting economic outlook and interest rate environment will impact the future trajectory of property values.

As strong headwinds continue to collide with strong tailwinds, the macroeconomic environment is becoming increasingly complex for real estate investors to navigate.  

In this first part, we review the historical relationship between the economy, inflation, interest rates and commercial real estate price movements.  

The second part will take the learnings from part one and analyze them through the lens of the current environment and then model property values over a five-year forecast horizon under different economic scenarios. 

Key takeaways from this first report include: 

  • U.S. property returns have consistently outpaced inflation historically 

  • CRE is thought to provide an effective hedge against inflation risk 

  • Investors gravitate to property during periods of elevated inflation 

  • However, upward forces on cap rates have increased markedly in the last few months
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