Now 2024 is underway, the commercial real estate market finds itself in relatively uncharted territory. While the market is still seeking a new balance between liquidity and fundamentals, market sentiment is improving. Market rates have significantly decreased since the fourth quarter of 2023, as it is expected that the European Central Bank will lower the policy rate in June.
For the coming year, a certain degree of market recovery would certainly be possible. Anticipating declining market rates, investor sentiment is improving, creating appetite or traction to explore the market. Due to a moderately filled transaction pipeline, this improved sentiment will not immediately translate into higher investment volumes, but it may happen as early as the second half of 2024, resulting in total investment volumes ranging between EUR 10 and EUR 12 billion for the year. The next six months will be crucial determining whether there is indeed a newfound balance between supply and demand and between liquidity and fundamentals.
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