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The Forecast Report 2024: Greater China Commercial Real Estate — What To Watch In 2024

Shaun Brodie • 28/12/2023
China Forecast Report 2024
 
 
The commercial real estate market in Greater China has been influenced by a number of factors over the last couple of years, not least by the macro economy, relevant policies, domestic demand and technology progress. Our report generally examines the real estate industry in Greater China and looks to provide an understanding of the aspects that will influence new business opportunity generation in the region in 2024. In particular, the report focuses on the following aspects:
 
The Macro Economy
 
In 2024, the mainland China economy will gradually recover. Challenges, however, will still be posed by the sluggish global economy.
 
Hot Themes And Alternatives 
 
Sustainability will continue to be at the forefront of real estate decision making in Greater China. A couple of interesting alternative assets investors and developers might want to consider in 2024 are boutique neighborhood hotels and battery storage parks.
 
Office Sector 
 
In the next two years, there will be a peak in supply in most of the major cities in mainland China, and this will inevitably lead to an increase in office project absorption pressure and a steady downward adjustment in rents. Landlords will need to strengthen their market competitiveness to attract tenants.
 
Retail Sector
 
The consumption structure of mainland China residents has gradually shifted from spending on necessity-focused goods and services to spending on leisure-focused goods and services over recent years. Retail sales volume related to concertgoing, performance entertainment, tourism, sports and F&B saw double digit growth over the past year.
 
Industrial Logistics Sector 
 
Top warehouse-operating logistics enterprises in Greater China have begun to further explore the application of digital technology and integrated platforms, which will improve distribution efficiency.
 
Real Estate Investment 
 
A growing number of domestic investors have increased their allocation into commercial real estate assets, especially in mainland China Tier 1 cities, as they seek stable long-term returns. We expect this trend to continue in 2024 given the relatively low interest rate environment for domestic capital and the recent expansion of C-REITs.

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